青海高原牧区雪灾逐级判识模型  

Gradual Differentiating Model for Snow Calamity in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

作　　者：周秉荣[1] 申双和[1] 李凤霞[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学应用气象系 [2]青海省气象科学研究所

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2006年第3期210-214,218,共6页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：科技部社会公益性项目"我国牧区暴风雪灾害监测预警系统研究"

摘　　要：降水、气温、风速是形成积雪的气象因子,由于承灾体(畜牧业生产)的脆弱性,积雪在一定程度上对畜牧业产生不利影响,但是某地区的自然、社会条件和人为活动作为孕灾环境能使这种不利影响加强或者发生转变,减轻或者加剧雪灾造成的损失。本文应用灾害学的理论和观点,对灾害形成的致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体等要素分层分析,明确各影响因子的作用及其相互关系。由此建立从降水、积雪、成灾到灾情评价的逐级判识模型,在地理信息背景数据库的支持下,从产生降水之后进行动态监测,并对不同地区的雪灾发展趋势做动态预测,最后实施灾情评估。经实际检验,该模型具有业务应用潜力。Precipitation, temperature, wind speed are meteorological factors forming the snow. The perpetual snow has an adverse impact on the animal husbandry in certain degree, because of the vulnerability of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to the snow. Factors causing calamity, calamity environment and animal husbandry were analyzed by using theory of calamity study step by step to identity the function and interaction among the factors. Therefore, the gradual differentiating model for snow calamity was established, supported by database of GIS. The model included some factors, such as precipitation, perpetual snow, causing of disaster, assessment of calamity, which were monitored and evaluated finally. From beginning of precipitation, the snow calamity development trend was monitored. Potentially the model could be used in the routine operation for the disaster assessment.

关 键 词：雪灾 评估 模糊 监测 逐级 

分 类 号：S812.1[农业科学—草业科学]