新建县土地利用变化预测与驱动因素分析  

Land Use Change Prediction and Driving Forces Analyses of Xinjian County

作　　者：陈文波[1] 赵小汎[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学国土资源与环境学院

出　　处：《江西农业大学学报》2006年第4期615-619,共5页Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis

基　　金：江西省教育厅资助项目(赣教技字[2006]146)

摘　　要：在遥感与地理信息系统支持下,建立了新建县1998年和2002年土地利用数据库,结合统计数据,运用马尔科夫与GM(1,1)两种预测方法对研究区未来的土地利用变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明,两种预测方法的预测结果吻合度较高,研究区土地利用变化的总趋势为耕地持续减少,林地持续增加;建设用地面积加速增长,未利用地减少速度放慢;草地和水域相对较稳定。结合研究区社会经济数据,进一步分析了土地变化的驱动因素,研究结果可为土地利用规划管理及政策的制定提供科学依据。Based on remote sensing and geographical information system, land use database of 1998 and 2002 in Xinjian County were established. Two commonly used prediction models, which are Markov model based on transformation matrix and GM （ 1,1 ） based on Grey theory respectively were applied to predict land use change direction in the future. The results indicated that coincidence degree between two prediction models was very high. Arable land and unused land will decrease persistently. Forest land and construction land showed acceleration tendency . Grassland and water body will be leveling - off in the future. Furthermore, driving forces of land use change are analyzed in this paper. The research results could provide scientific basis for land use planning and land use policy constitution.

关 键 词：马尔柯夫模型 灰色模型 土地利用变化预测 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]