俄罗斯天然气出口欧洲的动向分析  

Latest Trends in Natural Gas Export from Russia to Europe

作　　者：洪波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油规划总院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2006年第8期24-27,共4页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：俄罗斯是欧洲天然气最主要的来源国。俄罗斯出口欧洲的天然气有90%要经过乌克兰,存在一定的供气安全风险。近年来,俄罗斯修建了几条绕过乌克兰的管道。俄罗斯天然气的销售主要分为三种价格水平。最低的是国内天然气销售价格;独联体和波罗的海三国的天然气销售价格因俄罗斯以折扣价供应也处于较低的水平;出口欧洲的天然气与国际石油市场挂钩,价格较高。近年来,俄罗斯开始逐渐调整其天然气出口欧洲的政策,试图优化管输成本,扩大出口收入,进入欧洲的天然气零售市场,巩固其在欧洲天然气市场中的地位,并提高出口到独联体和波罗的海国家的天然气价格。欧洲对俄罗斯天然气过分依赖,管道走向过于单一,存在一定的进口天然气的政治风险。对俄欧天然气贸易的分析启示我们:天然气进口来源应多元化,应综合分析中国市场对进口天然气价格的承受能力,评估进口天然气的政治风险。Russia is the biggest source of natural gas to the entire Europeancontinent. 90% of the natural gas exported from Russia to Europe has to go through the Ukraine, a process that exposes the gas supply to risks. In response to this situation, Russia has over recent years built some pipelines bypassing the Ukraine. There are three types of prices associated with the natural gas supplied by Russia. The lowest of all is the natural gas price at home, then the price offered to the Commonwealth of Independent States and the three Baltic states, and the highest one is the price to the European market, which is closely linked to the price in the global oil market. Russia has been changing its policies associated with natural gas export to Europe over recent years, in the hope of gaining a foothold in the European natural gas retail market, consolidating its position in the European natural gas market and raising the price of its natural gas exported to CIS and Baltic countries by cutting down pipeline transmission cost and thereby increasing its export revenues. The excessive reliance by Europe on natural gas from Russia might expose it to political risk. It is not hard to see from this case that, when it comes to China should diversify its sources of imported natural gas, making decisions based upon how much it could afford the price of imported natural gas and the political risks associated with importing natural gas.

关 键 词：俄罗斯 欧洲 天然气 输气管道 价格 风险 

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