船舶斜浪航行生存概率预报的安全盆方法  

Safe Basin Method of Predicting Survival Probability of Ships in Bow Seas and Quartering Seas

作　　者：唐友刚[1] 刘利琴[1] 郑宏宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《天津大学学报》2006年第9期1021-1025,共5页Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50279026).

摘　　要：针对首斜浪和尾斜浪中船舶航行安全盆的构造及生存概率的预报方法,采用安全盆方法预报随机海浪中船舶航行的生存概率,考虑阻尼和复原力矩的非线性及海浪的随机性,建立了船舶横摇运动的随机非线性微分方程．综合考虑船舶运动的瞬时状态、航速及航向角,采用简谐加速度方法在时域内求解横摇随机微分方程,构造船舶斜浪航行的安全盆并预报斜浪航行的生存概率,选取不同的初始条件、航速、航向角及随机波浪参数,在横摇初值平面上构造了一条长30．7m渔船的安全盆并计算了渔船的生存概率,分析和比较了在首斜浪和尾斜浪航行时,有义波高和航速对船舶安全盆和生存概率的影响,结果表明,船舶的倾覆是否发生,与航速、航向角及船舶瞬时运动状态密切相关。Based on the methods for constructing the safe basins and predicting the survival probability of ships in bow seas and quartering seas, the prediction of survival probability of ships in the random bow seas and quartering seas by the safe basin method is studied. The random nonlinear differential equation of ships＇ rolling motion in random seas is established with considering the nonlinear damping, nonlinear restoring moment and the random waves. The random rolling differential equation is solved in time domain by the harmonic acceleration method with considering the instantaneous state of ships, the navigational speed and the heading angle synthetically. The numerical simulation of random capsizing course is brought forward, the safe basins are constructed and the survival probability of ships is calculated. As an example, the safe basins and the survival probability are obtained for a fishing vessel with 30.7 m in length in the rolling initial value plane according to different initial conditions, navigational speeds, heading angles and random wave parameters. The effect of the significant waveheights and navigational speeds to the safe basins and survival probability is analyzed and compared for the vessel in bow seas and quartering seas. It is found that the navigational speed, heading angle and the instantaneous motion state of ships play an important role in ship＇s capsize.

关 键 词：船舶倾覆 斜浪航行 随机海浪 安全盆 生存概率 

分 类 号：U661.3[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]