中国人口老龄化的宏观经济后果——应用一般均衡分析  

Macroeconomic Consequences of Population Ageing in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

作　　者：彭秀健[1] 

机构地区：[1]澳大利亚阿德莱德大学劳动研究所

出　　处：《人口研究》2006年第4期12-22,共11页Population Research

摘　　要：本文运用“中国可计算一般均衡模型”(PRCGEM)对中国人口老龄化的宏观经济后果进行量化分析。模型结果显示,中国人口老龄化将通过劳动力的负增长以及由此导致的物质资本的低增长减缓了中国经济增长的速度。人均物质生活水平仍然会继续增长,但是增长的速度会不断下降。在人口老龄化背景下,技术进步和生产率的不断提高是维持中国经济可持续增长的主要源泉。The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of the population ageing over the period of 2000 to 2100 in China using a computable general equilibrium （CGE） model. The simulation exercise shows that the main effect of population ageing is to decelerate aggregate economic growth through the negative growth of labour supply and reduction in the rate of physical capital formation. Secondly, material living standards keep improving but at a declining rate. Finally, productivity improvement is the main force that sustains China＇s economic growth during the 21st century against the backdrop of population ageing.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 经济增长 一般均衡分析 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]