中国城市化与经济增长的动态计量分析  

An Analysis of Dynamic Econometric Relationship between Urbanization and Economic Growth in China

作　　者：李金昌[1] 程开明[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学,浙江杭州310035

出　　处：《财经研究》2006年第9期19-30,共12页Journal of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：为探讨我国城市化与经济增长之间的相互作用和相互影响，文章依据1978-2004年的时序数据，利用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、误差修正模型、脉冲响应及方差分解等方法，对城市化水平与经济增长的关系进行动态计量分析。结果发现，经济增长是城市化水平提高的格兰杰原因，经济增长对城市化产生较大的正向冲击效应，而城市化对经济增长的作用强度不大；城市化水平受人均GDP影响的效应逐步增强，受自身影响的效应不断减弱，而人均GDP受自身波动影响的效应不断上升，受城市化水平影响的强度逐步下降。对我国城市化与经济增长关系的深入认识，有利于各级政府在推动城市化和促进经济增长的过程中采取合理对策，避免走入误区。This study explores the relationship between Chinese urbanization and economic growth. To this end, some econometric methods such as cointegration,Granger causality tests, IRF and variance decomposition are used to analyze the data from 1978 to 2004. The results show that economic growth is the Granger causality to urbanization in a long term. Economic growth makes great impact on urbanization, but urbanization makes little impact on economic growth. The change of urbanization is intensified by GDP per capital, but weakened by itself. The change of GDP per capital is intensified by itself, but weakened by urbanization. In the end, recommendations are discussed for governments to facilitate urbanization and economic growth.

关 键 词：城市化 经济增长 协整 格兰杰因果检验 脉冲响应 方差分解 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F290