气候变化对黄河河源区水资源系统的影响  

Influences of Global-warming on Water Resources System in the Riverhead Area of the Yellow River

作　　者：蓝永超[1] 沈永平[1] 李州英[2] 刘进琪[1] 马建华[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州730000 [2]黄河水利委员会上游水文水资源局,兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2006年第6期57-62,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX3-SW-229);中国气象局沙漠气象基金项目(sqj2005002)资助

摘　　要：利用水文、气象台站观测资料,分析了黄河河源区近几十年来温度、降水的变化。结果显示,该区域的温度对全球变暖有着明显的对应关系,近几十年来流域各个地方的温度有着不同程度的上升。降水量总体上呈减少态势,但因地理位置的不同而差异较大。其中,位于流域产流高值区的东南部近10余年降水大幅减少,受其影响,黄河源区产水量呈持续递减的态势。基于上述分析,利用大气环流模型(GCMS)与统计模式对未来流域气温、降水和径流的可能变化进行了预测,计算结果均表明,未来30年里黄河河源区的温度将进一步上升,并且降水量也有显著增加。受其影响,黄河河源区径流量将比1990S有显著增加。Changes of temperature, precipitation and runoff in the riverhead area of the Yellow River basin were analyzed according to the related hydrological and meteorological data for about 50 years. The results showed the temperature change possessed the obvious corresponding relationship with global warming, and temperatures all rose in varied degrees at every place in the area. Precipitation in the area had been decreasing as whole since 1960s, but the decrease extents of the precipitation at every place - showed obvious difference because of different geography position, and the decrease extent of the precipitation in the southeast of the area was the biggest since 1990, where runoff yield was the highest in the area. The runoff in the riverhead area of the Yellow River had been decreasing continually because of the influences of above factors. GCMS and some statistic models were used for forecasting the future possible variations on the precipitation and runoff in the basin based on above analysis, and the results showed temperature in the area would unceasingly rise and precipitation markedly increase in the future 30 years. Runoff in the area woull also increase in a certain extent along with precipitation increasing.

关 键 词：黄河河源区 全球变暖 大气环流模型 

分 类 号：TV213.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]