科尔沁地区农业生产及其可持续发展定量分析  

Quantitatively Analysis on Agricultural Production and its Sustainability in Horqin Area

作　　者：葛小东[1] 李振山[1] 倪晋仁[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境工程系水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100871

出　　处：《中国沙漠》2006年第5期722-728,共7页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：国家"973"沙漠化项目(TG2000048705);国家自然科学基金项目(90102016)资助

摘　　要：建立适用于沙漠化地区、包括自然条件、经济要素、技术措施和社会投入等要素、能准确反映农业生产关系的全要素生产数学模型,以奈曼旗为例,通过问卷调查识别影响沙漠化地区的主要因素,利用线性回归确定以1980年为分界的两个生产阶段的农业生产模型。分析表明,前一阶段以耕地、劳动力等经济要素投入为主要增产措施,关键驱动因素为劳动力,后一阶段主要以灌溉、施肥等技术投入作为主要增产措施,关键驱动因子为水利灌溉。现阶段,耕地、劳动力、耕畜等可控经济要素已经或即将达到投入上限,在降水、干旱天气等自然要素的影响下,技术措施的生产率也呈现下降趋势。从总体上看,各项投入要素的规模效益开始递减,现有生产方式必须得到有效改善,才能满足农业可持续发展的需求。Based on the concept of Total Factor Production, this paper constructs a model especially for the agricultural production in desertification area, which takes natural conditions, economic factors, technical measures and society strategies all as input for agriculture. According to questionnaires and linear regression method, models of two different phases are built. It suggests that, in the first phase from year 1949 to 1980, labor force was the pivotal factor to agricultural output and some other economic factors, such as plantation, also facilitated the agricultural development. In the second phase from Year 1980 to 2001, technical measures, especially irrigation measures, became more contributive. Rainfall was insufficient in both phases. In recent years, some economic factors have reached their upper limits for agricultural input, and the productivity of technical measures is in descent trend. Even worse, the scale benefit decreases. It is proved that the production mode of agriculture should be improved for the sustainable development in desertification areas.

关 键 词：沙漠化 农业生产函数 可持续发展 

分 类 号：F304[经济管理—产业经济]