青海高原牧区雪灾综合预警评估模型研究  

A Synthetical Forcasting Model of Snow Disaster in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

作　　者：周秉荣[1] 申双和[1] 李凤霞[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,210044 [2]青海省气象科学研究所

出　　处：《气象》2006年第9期106-110,共5页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：2003科技部社会公益研究专项资金项目;我国牧区暴风雪灾害监测预警系统研究资助

摘　　要：应用灾害学的理论和观点,以青海牧区为研究对象,对造成青藏高原雪灾的致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体等要素综合分析。建立从降水、积雪、成灾、灾情评价的综合判识模型,在地理信息背景数据库的支持下,从产生降水之后,进行快速监测,并对不同地区的雪灾发展趋势做动态预测,最后实施灾情评估。结果表明:在青藏高原的雪灾形成过程中,除积雪的直接致灾作用之外,孕灾环境的脆弱性和承灾体的敏感性也起着重要的作用。提出保护草场、加强草原畜牧业配套设施建设等措施,可以发挥人类抗灾的能动性,降低雪灾级别。最后应用综合预警模型,对发生在青海境内的雪灾过程进行了预测,效果较好,模型具有业务应用潜力。Utilizing the theory on calamity study and taking pasture of Qinghai as an example, the factors inducing snow disaster in Qinghai-Tibet plateau are analyzed. Based on the Geographical Information Database （GIS）, a synthetical identification snow model is constructed to monitor quickly the snow disaster after a snow, and then, the trend of snow disaster is forecasted dynamically, finally the estimation to disaster is conducted. The results show that during the processes of forming the snow disasters, in addition to the function of snow cover, the fragility of environment suffering disaster and sensitivity of carrier disaster play important roles. The advice which protect pasture and strengthen animal husbandry is given to decrease the damage of snow disaster. At last, using the synthetical forecasting model of snow disaster, the snow disaster forecast in Qinghai is made. The result shows that the model has potential value of application.

关 键 词：雪灾 评估 模糊 监测 

分 类 号：P641.74[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]