经济快速增长条件下的区域耕地数量安全——以青岛市为例  

Research on regional arable land quantity security with the acceleration growth of economy:a case study of Qingdao City

作　　者：何格[1] 欧名豪[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报》2006年第3期132-137,共6页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70373020)

摘　　要：用AR IMA、双对数函数、虚拟变量等经济计量模型测算了人口增长、城市化进程、消费需求增加和耕地保护政策及其执行力度对经济快速增长条件下青岛市的耕地数量安全的影响。结果显示:未来10年,青岛市人口将以每年近0.65%的速度递增,平均每年净增4.65万人,到2015年将达到774.34万人,为解决新增人口的吃饭问题每年需增加耕地1 751.09 hm2;过去20年青岛市城市化水平每增加1个百分点,耕地减少0.63万hm2,到2005年减少至48.43万hm2,2010年将减少到38.37万hm2;小康型消费水平要求2010年耕地的最低保有量为48.60万hm2,到2015年为50.12万hm2,富裕型消费水平要求到2010年耕地的最低保有量为54.00万hm2,到2015年为55.69万hm2;新《土地管理法》实施后的耕地安全形势并不理想。针对影响耕地数量安全的因素,提出了相应的政策建议。Such econometrics models as ARIMA, dual logarithm, and virtual variables were used to account how the population, the level of urbanization, the demand for food, the policy of arable land protection and its effect affect arable quantity security of Qingdao City with the acceleration growth of economy. The research results show that the population of Qingdao City increase 46. 5 thousands annually with the increase of population at the ratio of 0. 65%, it will reach to 7 743.4 thousand, 1 751.09 hectares ara- ble lands should be increased annually to satisfy food requirement of newly-born people in the coming 10 years. With the increase of urbanization at 1 percent in the past 20 years annually, the arable land of Qingdao was reduced 6. 3 thousand hectares accordingly. It will be reduced to 484. 3 thousand hectares in 2005, and 383.7 thousand hectares in 2010. The well-off consuming level requires the least leavings of arable land is 486. 0 thousand hectares in 2010 and 501.2 thousand hectares in 2015, as well as the rich level requires the least leavings of arable land is 540. 0 thousand hectares and 556. 9 thousand hectares. Although new land management law has been carried, the condition of the arable quantity security is not so ideal. On the basis of those, some countermeasures are put forward to realize arable quantity security of Qingdao City.

关 键 词：耕地数量安全 经济增长 城市化进程 经济计量模型 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]