Gompertz模型在油藏溶解气开发指标预测中的应用  

Application of Gompertz Model to Prediction of Solution Gas Development Index in Oilfield

作　　者：徐耀东[1] 丁良成[1] 杜玉山[1] 董晓燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石化胜利石油管理局地质科学研究院,山东东营257015

出　　处：《新疆石油地质》2006年第5期593-594,共2页Xinjiang Petroleum Geology

摘　　要：基于增长类型曲线微分方程,对实用的Gompertz模型进行了推导,得出了预测油藏溶解气产量、累积产量、可采储量、最高年产量及其对应时间的方法,并在矿场应用分析基础上确定了该模型的有效适用范围。以胜利油区胜坨油气田为例,分析了Gompertz模型在油藏溶解气产量及可采储量预测中的应用效果,说明在油气田的开发特征满足一定条件的情况下,利用Gompertz模型预测油气田开发指标具有一定的准确性和可靠性。The Gompertz model is derived based on differential equation of growth-type curve, in order to get a method for prediction of production rate, accumulative production rate, recoverable oil, peak annual production rate and corresponding time of solution gas in oilfield, and determine the valid applicable range in field. Taking Shengtuo field in Shengli oilfield as an example, the applied result of Gompertz model to prediction of solution gas production rate and reserve is analyzed. It is shown that this model can be used to predict development index of oil-gas field with some precision and reliability when the development characteristics of oilfield meet some conditions.

关 键 词：溶解气 可采储量 产量 预测 模型 

分 类 号：TE33[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]