中国经济增长与环境脆弱性的因果及冲击响应分析  

Causality and Impulse Response on the Relationship of China's Economic Growth and Environment Fragility

作　　者：熊文[1] 吴玉鸣[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西师范大学经济管理学院,桂林541001

出　　处：《资源科学》2006年第5期17-23,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"西南岩溶区生态重建与经济协调发展机制与调控模式"(编号:70463001);广西科学基金项目"广西岩溶区生态重建与经济协调发展机制及调控模式研究"(桂科基0448034);广西哲学社会科学"十五"规划研究课题"广西区域经济竞争力与可持续发展战略研究"(编号:03FJL003)

摘　　要：随着我国经济建设的不断深入,环境问题越来越严重。我们也越来越需要以科学的手段,运用统计推断的方法,从实际观测数据中对经济与环境的关系特别是因果关系做出客观判断。本文采用主成分分析方法对我国环境脆弱性进行了测度,运用格兰杰因果与脉冲响应函数分析中国经济增长与环境脆弱性之间的关系。结果显示:中国经济增长与环境脆弱性之间存在着互为因果的关系,但是经济增长与环境脆弱性之间是否存在格兰杰因果关系在很大程度上受到了其滞后期数的影响,而且这两者对对方的影响还存在着明显的差异。经济增长对环境脆弱性的影响具有明显的时滞性,是一种长期的、渐进的影响;而环境脆弱性对经济增长的影响的时滞却较短,是一种短期的、非渐进的影响。After China＇ s reform and opening up since 1978, along with China＇ s high economic growth rate,the environment problems become more and more serious. It is very important for us to make an objective judgment based on the actual observational data of the economic growth and the environmental relations. Specially, for the econometric study on causal relationship between economic and environmental fragility in China, the appropriate scientific methods and utilization of statistical index has to be chosen and obtained correctly. Firstly, the authors chose some variables and carried out data processing on economic growth and the environmental fragility separately. The authors selected per capital GDP to measure the economic growth. For environment fragility, we developed a set of time-series indicators from 1978 to 2003. Secondly,we selected a set of sensitive indicators, which can reflect the changes and responses of the environment under the disturbance and force of human economic activities. Thirdly, under the principles of accessibility and feasibility, we chose such four indicators as flood coverage rate, drought coverage rate, grain yield per hectare and cultivated land area to measure the dynamic changes of the environmental fragility in China synthetically. Then, we adopted principal-component analysis to evaluate the fragility of environment in China. Finally, dynamic relationship between economic growth and environmental fragility was analyzed based on the theory and methods of Granger causality and impulseresponse function model of dynamic econometrics and data obtained from Chinese Statistics Year Book 2004. It is concluded that the cause-effect relationship and interactions between China＇s economic growth and environment fragility surely exist. But, whether there is a Granger causality between economic growth and environment fragility has been influenced by the lagging period to a great extent. The impact of the economic growth on environment fragility has obvious skewing, which is a kind of long-te

关 键 词：经济增长 环境脆弱性 格兰杰因果 脉冲响应函数 主成分分析 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224