全球和我国近海验潮站及任意地点(区)的21世纪海平面预测  

FORECASTING OF SEA LEVELS AT COAST TIDE GAUGE STATIONS AND ANY PLACES IN CHINA AND THE WORLD IN THE TWENTY FIRST CENTURY

作　　者：郑文振[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋信息中心,天津300171

出　　处：《海洋通报》1996年第6期1-7,共7页Marine Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金:49576294

摘　　要：叙述了应用我国验潮站的海平面资料求年变率的方法,该法得出我国海平面的年变率为0.14～0.20cm/a;同时对海平面的外推预测法进行介绍和比较验证;提出全球海平面上升值加当地地面升降值的地点和地区预测法,结合年变率和气温升温计算出全球和我国珠江、长江及黄河三角洲等地区以及一些地点的21世纪海平面预测值。此法尚可推广到全世界的验潮站和我国任意地点（区）计算未来21世纪的海平面预测值。This paper describes the method of deriving the annual variability using the data of sea levels at tide gauge stations in China. The annual variability of the sea levels in China derived in this way is 0.14 - 0.20cm/a. Meanwhile the extrapolation forecasting method of sea levels is introduced, compared and verified. The place and area forecasting method with the global sea level rise value plus the local ground level rise or fall value is put forward, and the forecasting values of sea levels in some areas of the world and China, such as the Zhujiang River Delta, the Changjiang River Delta and the Huanghe River Delta in the twenty first century are calculated in this way with the annual variability and the air temperature rise value. This method can applied to calculating the forecasting values of sea levels at the tide gauge stations in the world and any places in China in the twenty first century.

关 键 词：验潮站 21世纪 海平面预测 任意地点 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]