城市过境交通流量调查与预测方法研究  

Investigation of Urban Transit Traffic Flow and Study of Forecast Method

作　　者：钱勇生[1] 汪海龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《城市道桥与防洪》2006年第5期140-144,共5页Urban Roads Bridges & Flood Control

摘　　要：介绍了过境交通研究中通常采用的交通调查方法,并以记录车辆牌照法调查为重点,提出城市过境交通调查中调查地点和调查时段的选取原则。并通过对外交通小区的划分与数据库的建立,研究了一种城市出入口交通流特性分析的方法.并解决了过境交通初始OD矩阵、相应时间OD矩阵的建立方法,OD矩阵的扩充以及过境交通需求预测方法,最后以兰州市为实例对过境交通流量调查与预测方法进行了验证。The article introduces the traffic investigation method commonly used in the study of thetransit traffic, and puts forward the selecting principle of the investigation places and investigation time period in the investigation of the urban transit traffic investigation, taking the record of the vehicle license plate for the investigation as the focal point. And the article studies a method to analyze the urban entrance and exist traffic flow characteristic through the division of the opening traffic residential area and the establishment of data bank. And it is to solve the establishment method of the primary OD matrix and the relative time OD matrix of the transit traffic, and the expanding method of OD matrix and the forecast method of the transit traffic demand. At last, the article verifies the investigation and forecast methods of the transit traffic flow, taking Lanzhou City as the practical example.

关 键 词：过境交通 OD调查 Fratar模型 LOGIT模型 

分 类 号：U491.11[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]