地震现场综合地震学预报方法  

SYNTHETIC PREDICTION METHOD OF SEISMOLOGY IN SEISMIC FIELD

作　　者：戴英华[1] 李钦祖[1] 王泽皋[1] 刘素英[1] 李淑莲[1] 刘继录[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局

出　　处：《地震》1990年第1期1-13,共13页Earthquake

基　　金：地震科学联合基金

摘　　要：本文经过对大量地震序列进行地震学预报方法的清理和研究,从地震现场监测预报工作的要求出发,选用了地震学的定量方法作为地震现场判断地震类型和预测最大后续地震震级的依据。在评价不同方法、判断不同地震类型的能力后,提出了地震现场对地震类型进行综合判断的方法。在清理110个地震序列的基础上,讨论了本文提出的方法在预报地震类型和最大后续地震震级的效果,以及预报的可信度,并对方法进行了检验。 结果证明这些定量方法和判据在地震现场监测预报工作中具有定量化和实用化的意义。Through the check-up and researches of the seismalogical prediction methods on a number of earthquake sequence and proceeding from the requirement of the seismic monitoring and predicting work in the field, this paper choses the quantitative method of seismology as the criterion for discriminating earthquake types and predicting the maximum magnitude of follow-up earthquake at the seismic site. After evaluating the capacity of various methods for recognition of different earthquake types, authors here proposed a method for synthetically discriminating earthquake types in the seismic field. Based on the check-up of 110 earthquake sequences, the effect and reliability of the proposed method for discriminating earthquake types and predicting the maximum magnitude of follow-up earthquakes are discussed. And an examination on the method has been made.Results prove that these quantitative methods and criteria are significant in quantification and practicality for earthquake monitoring and predicting work in the seismic field.

关 键 词：地震预报 地震学 地震 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]