灰色决策方法在地震对策中的应用  

APPLICATION OF GREY DECISION-MAKING METHOD TO EARTHQUAKE COUNTERMEASURE

作　　者：彭美煊[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西省地震局

出　　处：《地震》1990年第2期61-66,共6页Earthquake

摘　　要：本文以文献[1]为基础,利用灰色决策方法的有关公式,将地震的多目标决策按不等权和化为单目标决策,计算了各目标的效果测度矩阵和综合测度矩阵,从而确定出最优局势。计算结果表明,在地震预报发布后,在烈度Ⅹ和Ⅺ度地区最佳对策是疏散人口,在Ⅷ度和Ⅸ度地区最佳对策是加固房屋,在Ⅵ度和Ⅶ度地区最佳对策是不采取措施。灰色决策方法对减轻地震灾害可能有一定参考价值。Based on literature [1] , the multiple target decision-make of earthquake countermeasure is simplified as single target decision-make to calculate the effect measure matrix of each target and then the synthetic effect matrix of various targets is also calculated by considering their unequal weight sum and using the relevant formula of grey decision-making metlmd (2), so as to determine the optimum situation. The computed results show that after the issue of an earthquake prediction, the optimum countermeasures are to evacuate the population in areas with seismic intensity Ⅺ and Ⅹ, to reinforce houses in a-reas with intensity Ⅷ and Ⅸ, and no measures should be taken in areas with intensity Ⅵ-Ⅶ. The grey decision-making method is probably of some reference for reducing earthquake disaster.

关 键 词：地震 对策 灰色决策 灾害 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]