稳健财政政策的非凯恩斯效应及其可持续性  

Non-Keynesian Effects in Stable Fiscal Policy and Its Sustainability

作　　者：郭庆旺[1] 贾俊雪[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2006年第5期58-67,共10页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"积极财政政策效果评估及淡出策略研究"(04AJY006);"985工程"中国财政金融研究哲学社会科学创新基地项目"财政制度;财政政策与经济发展:中国模式研究"的阶段性成果;教育部高等学校优秀青年教师奖资助。

摘　　要：本文首先考察了我国近几年从积极财政政策转向稳健财政政策的财政收支调整或财政稳固方式,进而利用面板数据模型探究了积极财政政策转向稳健财政政策对宏观经济的影响,最后利用增长核算法探讨了我国应采取何种方式的稳健财政政策以确保其具有可持续性。分析表明,由于我国财政收入政策存在显著的“非凯恩斯效应”,因此现阶段实施的以增收为主要方式的稳健财政政策没有对宏观经济产生明显的负面影响;我国财政政策成功转型以及稳健财政政策具有可持续性的关键在于科学合理地选择财政稳固方式,即应以增加财政收入为主,且尽量保持财政收支同步增长。The authors first examine fiscal adjustment and fiscal consolidation modes in China's recent shift from a proactive to a stable fiscal policy, then investigate 1) the impact of this shift on the macro-economy, using a panel data model, and 2) the type of stable fiscal policy needed to guarantee sustainability, using growth accounting. Analysis shows that the current focus of stable fiscal policy on boosting revenue has not had an obvious negative impact on the macro-economy, due to clear “non-Keynesian effects” in China's fiscal revenue policy. The key to a successful transformation of fiscal policy and the sustainability of a stable fiscal policy lies in the scientific and rational choice of fiscal consolidation modes: the emphasis should be on boosting fiscal revenue, while keeping fiscal revenue and expenditure growing in step.

关 键 词：财政政策 财政稳固 非凯恩斯效应 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学] F224