农村劳动力非农化与种植模式变迁——以江汉平原稻农水稻种植为例  

Non-farming Activities and Change of Cropping Pattern

作　　者：陈风波[1] 丁士军[2] 

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院 [2]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《南方经济》2006年第9期43-52,共10页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目"南方水稻生产的干旱风险以及农户的处理策略"(编号:70273013);洛克菲勒基金资助项目"Drought and Rice Farmer's Coping Mechanism in the Rice Production Systems of Southern China"(编号:2001-FS-129);华南农业大学校长基金资助项目"中国南方稻农水稻种植行为研究"(编号:4700-K06130)

摘　　要：20世纪80年代以来,中国南方双季稻区出现的双季稻改单季稻已经造成水稻播种面积的减少,近年来直接影响到稻谷产量的增长。本文在新古典假设下,构建了农户行为模型,利用单位概率模型对影响江汉平原稻农水稻种植模式变化的深层次因素进行了分析,结论发现除气候变化等自然因素外,非农活动增加而引起的劳动力不足是导致双季稻改单季稻的主要原因。More and more farmers are changing double season rice to single season rice, which has led to the decrease of rice plantation areas since 1980s and the decrease of rice output in recent years. Based on researches of Jianghan Plain in Hubei province,this paper investigates factors that lead to change of farmer＇s cropping patterns with Probit Model and find that, except for changes of environment, the main reason of shortage of labor is that results in the change from double season rice to single season rice, which is caused by non-farming activities.

关 键 词：非农化 种植模式 “双改单” 

分 类 号：F304.6[经济管理—产业经济]