基于决策者风险态度的导流方案多目标决策研究  

Multi-objective decision-making method for diversion schemes based on risk attitudes of decision makers

作　　者：范锡峨[1] 柴换城[2] 胡志根[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]中国海洋大学工程学院

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2006年第5期522-525,共4页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50539120)

摘　　要：以导流方案优选为核心,在效用理论的基础上考虑决策者的风险态度,建立导流系统标准的效用损失函数,在导流系统标准期望效用损失均衡原则的指导下,合理分配施工导流系统风险,制定导流方案,运用多目标决策理论,建立基于决策者风险态度的导流方案多目标决策模型.实例分析表明,该决策模型是有效的,可以较好地解决导流方案的多目标决策问题.For optimal selection of a diversion scheme, a utility loss function is developed based on the utility theory with the attitudes of decision makers taken into account. Under the guidance of expected standard utility loss equilibrium principle, the risks of construction of diversion system are distributed reasonably, and the diversion schemes are worked out. By means of multi-objective decision-making theory, a multi-objective decision-making model for diversion schemes based on risk attitudes of decision makers is established. A case study shows that the decision-making model is effective for multi-objective decision-making in optimal selection of diversion schemes.

关 键 词：风险态度 导流方案 效用损失 多目标决策 

分 类 号：TV551.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]