全运会田径成绩的发展态势分析及灰色预测研究  

An Analysis on the Developing Trend of the Performance of Track and Field in National Sports Games and Its Study with Grey Prediction

作　　者：陈亮[1] 赛庆彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]曲阜师范大学体育科学学院,山东曲阜273165

出　　处：《首都体育学院学报》2006年第5期85-88,共4页Journal of Capital University of Physical Education and Sports

摘　　要：以7～10届全国运动会田径比赛各项目前三名成绩的平均值作为研究对象，利用灰色理论的GM（1，1）模型方法探讨了全运会田径项目的发展变化态势，旨在为08年北京奥运会寻找基石和突破口。结果显示，男子竞走、跨栏跑等项目；女子中长跑、竞走、标枪、铅球、链球等项目应为08年北京奥运会中国代表团的重点发展项目。在此基础上，利用三数据建模预测法建立了全运会田径成绩的预测模型，并对十运会田径成绩进行预测，然后与实际成绩进行对比，结果多数项目的预测精确度很高，达到了预期的目的。Taking the average scores of the top three athletes in track and field events from the 7th to 10th National Sports Games as research subject,utilizing the model of GM（1, 1） of the grey theory, this paper aims at looking for the foundation and breakthrough for the 08 Beijing Olympic Games. It is indicated that such events as men＇s speed walking, hurdle race, women＇s middledistance race, speed walking, javelin ,shot ,hammer ,etc. should be the key developing event of the Chinese delegation in 08 Beijing Olympic Games. On this basis,three-data modeling to predict France is made use of to set up the prediction model for the performance of track and field in National Sports Games. At the same time ,the performance of track and field events in the Tenth National Games is predicted and compared with actual performance. It is found that the prediction of the results of most of the events is very accurate,which has achieved the anticipated goal.

关 键 词：全运会 田径成绩 发展预测 

分 类 号：G812.20[文化科学—体育学]