供水管道爆漏事故影响因素实例分析  

A case study on factors influencing the burst and leakage of water pipeline

作　　者：马乐宁[1] 刘文君[1] 徐洪福[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学环境科学与工程系,北京100084 [2]深圳市水务(集团)有限公司水技术研究所,深圳518030

出　　处：《给水排水》2006年第9期86-89,共4页Water & Wastewater Engineering

摘　　要：以S市供水管网2000～2005年6年的管道维修记录为基础,运用统计分析方法深入研究对管网爆、漏事故产生长、短期作用的两类影响因素.采用生存分析法比较不同管材、管径管道的生存率大小.计算气候因素与事故率的相关性,得出月均温度和年降水量与事故率的Pearson相关系数,并用幂函数曲线拟合月均温度与月事故率的关系.It was used the statistical approach to study the long-term and short-term role factors which influence the water pipe leakage and burst accidents. The statistical approach is based on pipe inventory data and the maintenance data of S city from 2000 to 2005. The survival analysis method is applied to compare the survival rates of different diameter and material pipes. The Pearson correlation coefficients of climatic factors and the accident rates are calculated and power model is used to estimate the trend of changes in the pipe accident rates with the average monthly temperatures. And the power function curve was using to fit the correlation coefficients of average monthly temperatures and accident rates.

关 键 词：供水管道 事故 影响因素 生存分析 回归模型 

分 类 号：TU991.36[建筑科学—市政工程]