基于置信分布的系统可靠度评估蒙特卡罗方法  

Monte Carlo method for system reliability evaluation using reliability confidence distribution

作　　者：张艳[1] 黄敏[1] 赵宇[1] 于丹[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学工程系统工程系,北京100083 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100080

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报》2006年第9期1023-1025,1082,共4页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

摘　　要：大型系统、复杂系统的可靠度的求解问题是可靠性工程中一个热点和难点的问题,针对这个问题,提出了一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟仿真的系统可靠度求解方法.通过利用系统的各个单元产品的可靠度置信分布和系统可靠度函数进行蒙特卡罗仿真,评估出系统可靠度.本方法克服了以往的蒙特卡罗仿真方法处理离散分布时抽取时间样本的困难,并且对系统的结构和复杂程度没有要求.最后,给出计算实例对比说明了该方法的正确性和可用性.A Monte Carlo method was presented to ravel out the system reliability estimation problem of large and complex system＇s reliability, which is a hot and difficult spot in the reliability engineering field. The reliability samples of system＇s units from their reliability confidence distribution and system＇s reliability estimation equation were combined in the method to simulate system running and get the system＇s reliability. The difficult problem that no solution to get time samples from the discontinuous distributions is resolved by this method. Further more, the method has little limitation to the system＇s structure and complexity that will expand its utilization. An instance was given to illustrate the method＇s accuracy and availability in the estimation in a complex and large system through comparison with other reliability estimation methods which were generally use in the reliability engineering field.

关 键 词：蒙特卡罗方法 可靠性 评估 

分 类 号：V241.01[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计]