欧洲中央银行货币政策绩效评价:1999～2005  

Evaluation of performance of ECB monetary policy:1999～2005

作　　者：郑建军[1] 高倩倩[2] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学国际经济与贸易系 [2]厦门大学经济系

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2006年第10期42-48,共7页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要：欧洲中央银行(ECB)围绕价格稳定目标确立起其货币政策战略。自1999年EMU正式建立以来,ECB的这一战略是否取得了成功呢?本文采用1999￣2005年数据,首先借助HICP通胀率、通胀预期等指标分析ECB货币政策在控制短期和中长期通胀方面的成效;然后进一步分阶段描述ECB货币政策行为和通胀率等主要宏观指标的内在联系。本文认为欧元区近些年来的通胀率超标主要是负向供给冲击尤其是能源价格冲击的结果;从主要指标看,ECB的货币政策战略已经取得初步成功;但是欧元区未来经济走势将对ECB的货币政策提出更严峻的挑战。The European Central Bank （ECB） is endowed with price stability as the core of its monetary policy strategy. Since the foundation of EMU in 1999, has the strategy been realized？ We firstly analyze the effect of ECB monetary policy on short-run and medium to long-run inflation rate with some indicators, such as HICP and inflation expectation, Then we demonstrate the inherent relationship between ECB monetary policy behavior, inflation rate and other macroeconomic variables. We conclude that ECB＇ s loss of control over inflation in recent years is the result of negative supply impact, especially rising energy prices. To some extent, the monetary policy strategy of ECB has succeeded. However, the future economic trend in EMU will put severer challenges to ECB.

关 键 词：欧洲中央银行 货币政策 通货膨胀率 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]