区域农业结构的灰色关联分析与优势产业的发展  

The Gray Correlation Analysis of Agricultural Structure and the Development of the Superior Industry in the Middle Region of China

作　　者：吴凯[1] 卢布[2] 袁璋[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2006年第10期397-401,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：水利部全国水资源综合规划项目"中国农业生产结构与区域布局研究"专题

摘　　要：应用灰色关联分析、相关分析对中国中部地区三大区域的农村经济结构、农林牧渔业总产值结构、粮食产量结构、肉类产量结构进行了初步分析,确定了贡献较大的因子,并用时序模型对所研究的系列进行了模拟和预测。中部地区农业结构的现状是:非农产业的贡献越来越大,农、牧业为主的产值结构,中国玉米、小麦、稻谷、大豆优势产业带,中国肉牛、肉羊生产优势区。该区三大区域应根据各自的资源优势,因地制宜、大力发展其优势粮食作物、优势牛羊业和优势非农产业,进一步促进其农业和农村经济的可持续发展。The applications of the gray correlation analysis and the relation analysis on optimizing agricultural structure in the Middle Region of China were preliminarily analyzed, which include the village economy, the gross output value of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, the grain output, the meat output. Then the bigger contribution factor was determined. At last, the research series were simulated and predicted using the time series models in this paper. The present situation of agricultural structure in the Middle Region of China was： the non-agricultural industry has an increasingly important contribution. It has the farming-animal husbandry industrial structure and it is the superior industrial zones of grain crops including high quality maize, high quality wheat, high quality rice and high quality soybean, and the superior regions of high quality on or sheep production. In this connection, according to the regional resource superiorities in the area, the high quality rice, high quality wheat, high quality maize and high quality soybean should be energetically developed, the superior ox or sheep industry should be vigorously developed, and the superior non-agricultural industry should be devoted major efforts to developing in line with local conditions.

关 键 词：中部地区 农业结构 灰色关联分析 优势产业 

分 类 号：S1[农业科学—农业基础科学]