黄河宁蒙河段封河和开河预报方法初探  

Research on Freezing up and Melting Forecast of Ninxia-Inner Mongolia Section of the Yellow River

作　　者：康志明 张芳华 李金田[2] 王文东 金少华 杨克明 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]内蒙古巴彦淖尔市气象局 [3]云南省玉溪市气象局

出　　处：《气象》2006年第10期41-45,共5页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：利用气象和水文等实测资料,在系统地分析黄河上游宁蒙河段凌汛特征及物理成因的基础上[1],选取与封、开河预报因子密切相关的因素进行统计分析发现:影响封河最主要因素是气温的变化,旬平均温度<-5℃,河流封冻;开河无确定的临界气温指标,而与隆冬1—2月累积负积温有明显负相关性。利用车贝雪夫多项式展开得到预报因子,采用数理统计逐步回归分析方法进行分析计算,分别建立了宁蒙河段封、开河日趋势统计预报模型。预报结果验证具有较好的预报效果。Based on meteorological and hydrological observed data, the character and physical cause of the ice run along Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Section of the Yellow River have been systematically analyzed. Statistical analysis of some factors that are interrelated to freezing up and melting of the river shows that the change of temperature is the main factor that affects the freezing up of the river, the river freezes up when the decadal mean temperature is lower than -5℃; meanwhile there is no critical air temperature index related to the thaw date of river ice, the date has a clear negative correlation with the temperature of lan and Feb. Forecast equation was established through stepwise regression based on the factors created by Chebyshev polynomials, and it has proved to have good capability by the experimental forecast.

关 键 词：凌汛灾害 封河日 开河日 车贝雪夫多项式 

分 类 号：P332.8[天文地球—水文科学]