灰色马尔可夫预测模型在螺杆泵寿命预测中的应用  

APPLICATION OF GRAY MARKOV PREDICTION MODEL IN PREDICTION OF PROGRESSIVE-CAVITY PUMP'S LIFETIME

作　　者：李远超[1] 吴晓东[1] 黎政权[2] 刘双全[1] 王玉平[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学 [2]中国石油吉林油田公司

出　　处：《天然气工业》2006年第10期92-94,共3页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：石油科技中青年创新基金项目(编号:04E7033)的资助

摘　　要：螺杆泵作为一种新兴的人工举升方式目前在油气田发挥巨大的作用,准确地进行现场螺杆泵寿命预测对油气田作业生产安排、产量计划意义重大。为此,根据螺杆泵失效随机性和突发性强的特点,将灰色GM(1,1)预测模型和马尔可夫预测模型相结合,利用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对油气田现场的原始数据进行趋势化处理,利用马尔可夫预测模型计算预测值的状态转移概率,由此形成了考虑随机因素影响的灰色马尔可夫预测模型。将该模型用于油气田现场螺杆泵寿命预测,结果证明,该方法计算精度较高,实用性强。As a burgeoning artificial lift mode, the progressive cavity pump (PCP) plays a great role in oil and gas fields at present. Accurate prediction of the working life of the field used PCP means great for arrangement of oil/gas field operation and production, and also production rate planning. In this paper, according to the randomness and unexpectedness of the PCP failures, the gray GM(1,1) prediction model and Markov prediction model are combined,gray GM(1,1) prediction model is utilized to make tendency treatment on original data collected from oil and gas fields, the Markov prediction model is utilized to calculate the state transfer probability of the predicted data, hence the gray Markov prediction model considering the influence of randomness is formed. This model has been applied in oil and gas field to predict the PCP's lifetime, and the results indicate that this calculation method has a high accuracy and high practicability.

关 键 词：油田 气田 数学模型 螺杆泵 预测 

分 类 号：TE933.3[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]