新世纪初我国数值天气预报的科技创新研究  

Progress of Chinese Numerical Prediction in the Early New Century

作　　者：薛纪善[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2006年第5期602-610,共9页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目"中国气象数值预报系统技术创新研究"(2004BA607B);国家自然科学基金重点项目"中国强降水天气预报研究"(40233036)共同资助

摘　　要：概要介绍最近5年在国家科技攻关项目“中国气象数值预报系统科技创新研究”框架内所取得的主要成果,重点是卫星等遥感资料在变分同化中的应用,高分辨非静力数值预报模式的发展,全球资料同化与中期数值天气预报系统的发展,数值天气预报系统的模块化与并行计算,数值天气预报新技术的研究等,并扼要介绍我国新一代数值天气预报系统的业务应用试验。最后,对我国数值天气预报的进一步发展做了讨论。The main achievements of the national key-research project ＂Innovative Researches on Chinese Numerical Weather Prediction System＂, which is conducted in 2001-2005 co-sponsored by Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology and China Meteorological Administration are reviewed. Aiming at the development of Chinese next generation numerical weather prediction （NWP） system which will be able to improve the NWP benefited from the availabilities of more powerful computer facilities and observational data with higher temporal and spatial resolutions, the project focuses on four main issues. They are the development of advanced data assimilation system, the development of unified model dynamic core suitable to different scales, optimization of model physics and parallel computing of NWP model in high performance computer environment. It is expected that the applications of advanced technologies in the new NWP system will result in better performance and higher flexibility for the further upgrading of the system along with the further improvement of computer resources and data availability in the near future. As the main results of this project, a new Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES in short） is developed. The main components of the system are the data assimilation system GRAPES-3Dvar, the global NWP model GRAPES-global and the regional NWP model GRAPES-Meso. GRAPES-3DVar is a three dimensional variational assimilation system suitable to both regional and global domains with the capability of assimilating unconventional remote sensing data, such as the radiation data from meteorological satellites. Following GRAPES-3DVar, a four dimensional variational data assimilation system （GRAPES-4DVar） is also developed, GRAPES-Global and GRAPES-Meso are based on the same unified dynamic core with hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic options. A package of model physics plug-compatible with the above model dynamic core is developed. In order to exploit the growing computer resources, parallel

关 键 词：数值天气预报 科技创新 GRAPES 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]