基于GIS的甘肃省生态承载力时空动态分析  

Spatiotemporal dynamic analysis of the ecological carrying capacity in Gansu based on GIS

作　　者：徐晓锋[1] 岳东霞[2] 汤红官[3] 安黎哲[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学生命科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [3]兰州大学土木工程与力学学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2006年第5期62-67,共6页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40671179);甘肃省软科学(4RS054-A65-113);国家社会科学基金(06XJY004)资助项目

摘　　要：利用生态足迹方法,计算了1991～2003年甘肃省14个地区和86个县2级行政区域的人均生态足迹、生态承载力和生态预算值,并预测了各县级行政区域2004～2015年的各项数值．结果表明1991～2015年甘肃省各地、县的生态承载力供求差距均逐年拉大,大部分地区、县的生态承载力需求已经超出了生态承载力供给,处于不可持续的发展状态；在GIS技术支持下,利用地统计学方法,对全省86个县1991～2015年的人均生态预算值进行空间插值,在时、空尺度上对该省人均生态预算值的空间格局与时空动态趋势进行了分析．所得空间插值图表明1991～2015年甘肃省人均生态预算值的空间格局极不平衡,整体呈现由西部地区向东部地区递减的趋势；随着时间的推移,全省以及各地、县人均生态预算均呈逐年降低趋势,且省内不同区域人均生态预算值的变化趋势各有不同,差异较大．要遏制这种趋势的继续发展,甘肃省必须在逐渐减少建筑用地和化石能源消费的基础上,不断提高生产力水平,才能实现未来的可持续发展．Based on the ecological footprint EF methodology and as a case study of Gansu, China from 1991 to 2003, we calculated the per capita ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological budget time series in Gansu＇s 14 prefectures and 86 counties; quantitatively forecasted them for 2004-2015. All the results showed that the difference between the ECC supply and need was growing in a majority of places in Gansu over time. The natural capital consumption of human beings had exceeded the ECC limits in there. The development Gansu was unsustainable over the time period. We analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamic trends of ecological sustainability in spatiotemporal dimension with the help of the spatial analysis methods of GIS and spatial interpolation methods of geostatistics. The prediction maps interpolated showed that the spatial patterns of the per cap ecological budgets of all prefectures and counties were very imbalanced from every annual map on the whole while its ecological budgets were descending from the western part to eastern part of the province for 1991-2015, and per capita ecological budget of Gansu on the whole is being annually reduced by all the annual maps in the long-time series. In order to keep within limits the development trends, the province must decrease the build-up area and energy consumption and increase the productivity so that it will break away from the state of ecological deficit and move toward sustainbility in the future.

关 键 词：生态承载力 生态足迹 生态预算 地理信息系统 地统计学 时空动态 甘肃省 

分 类 号：P967[天文地球—自然地理学]