上海人口经济增长及其对环境影响的相关分析  

A Correlation Analysis on the Growth of Population and Economy and Its Influence on Environment in Shanghai

作　　者：王桂新[1] 刘旖芸[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学人口研究所,上海200433 [2]复旦大学城市与区域发展研究中心,上海200433

出　　处：《亚热带资源与环境学报》2006年第1X期41-50,共10页Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目（40371047）、国家社会科学基金重点项目（05AJY002）和教育部人文社科研究重大项目（05JJD840010）

摘　　要：本文考察了改革开放以来上海人口、经济及能源消费增长与环境污染的关系，发现人口、经济增长与能源消费增长密切正相关，呈同向变化；人口、经济及能源消费增长与环境污染之间也密切相关，但并不存在单纯的正相关或负相关关系，而是在不同发展阶段表现有所不同，总体而言基本符合库兹涅茨曲线假说，即在20世纪80年代及以前，环境污染水平随人口经济增长而上升，到了20世纪80年代末，经济发展水平达到人均GDP5500元左右时，环境污染水平达到峰值，此后即随人口经济增长而呈下降趋势．This paper examines the relationship between population growth and economy, energy consumption and environment pollution in Shanghai since the reform and opening to the outside world. The author finds that there have been constant close and positive relationships between the growth of population, economy and energy consumption. The growth of population, economy and energy consumption has been also closely related to environment pollution, but such relationships have not been always positive or negative. They have changed with different development stages and have been generally consistent with the Kuznets Curve hypothesis. This is demonstrated by the fact that the level of environment pollution went up with the growth of population and economy before the 1980s; the level of environment pollution arrived at the peak value when the GDP per capita reached 5 500 Yuan at the end of the 1980s; and after that, the level of environment pollution went down while the trend of population and economy growth declined. The research of this paper can provide an important scientific basis for achieving sustainable development and establishing the ＂Four Centers＂ around 2020 in Shanghai.

关 键 词：上海 人口经济 能源消费 环境污染 库兹涅茨曲线 

分 类 号：X796[环境科学与工程—环境工程]