新疆特定地区地震频度与大震关系的预测研究  

PREDICTION RESEARCH ON THE RELATION BETWEEN EARTHQUAKE FREQUENCE IN SPECIFIC REGIONS AND STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN XINJIANG

作　　者：龙海英[1] 敖雪明[1] 王桂岭[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《内陆地震》2006年第3期232-238,共7页Inland Earthquake

基　　金：地震科学联合基金(04-304026)资助

摘　　要：采用1970～2004年新疆区域台网观测的地震目录，通过对小震频度进行普查与统计检验，筛选出了4个具有较高预报效能的特定小区。研究了中强以上地震之前4个小区的异常特征，并据此制定出定量或半定量的单项预报判据指标。同时对6级以上地震前4个小区异常特征进行了综合分析并制定出相应的综合预报判据指标。结果表明，该方法对于时间尺度为8个月的中短期地震预报是有一定效能的。最后，对所得结果的可能物理机制等问题进行了讨论。We filtrated 4 specific small regions that have higher prediction efficiency by the catalog observed by regional seismic stations net in Xinjiang from 1970 to 2004 and small earthquakes frequency. Studied the anomalous characteristics of 4 specific small regions before mediumstrong earthquakes, and determined the quantitative and .half quantitative criterion index of monomial prediction according to them. At the same time, we analyzed the anomalous characteristics of 4 small specific regions before Ms ≥ 6.0 earthquakes, and determined the synthesis criterion index of prediciton. The result shows that method has certain prediction efficiency for mediun - short term prediciton of 8 months. In the end, we disscussed the physical mechanism of the result.

关 键 词：新疆 小震频度 预报判据 地震预报 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]