蒙特卡罗法在天然气水合物资源量计算中的应用  

THE APPLICATION OF MONTE CARLO(MC)METHOD TO THE ESTIMATION OF GAS HYDRATE RESOURCES

作　　者：曾繁彩[1] 吴琳[2] 张光学[3] 梁金强[3] 王宏斌[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学+地球科学与资源学院,北京100083 [2]中国地质调查局,北京100035 [3]广州海洋地质调查局,广州510760

出　　处：《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2006年第5期139-144,共6页Marine Geology & Quaternary Geology

摘　　要：天然气水合物甲烷资源量的估算是天然气水合物研究中的热点问题。运用体积法计算含水合物沉积物中的甲烷资源量时,存在参数赋值不确定的问题,从而影响了计算结果的可信度。采用蒙特卡罗法,通过计算样本的频率可以较好地评价和描述计算结果的信度,弥补体积法的不足。对采用蒙特卡罗法估算甲烷资源量的原理进行了分析和探讨,并以麦肯齐三角洲和南海海域水合物为例,计算了水合物赋存区的甲烷资源量。Gas hydrate is an important potential resource in the 21st century. The hot spot in the researches of gas hydrate is to estimate methane resources in gas hydrate. Reliability of the calculating result could be reduced because of the uncertainty of calculating parameters when volume method is used to do the calculation,but the reliability of calculating result could be evaluated and described well and truly by calculating the frequency of samples using Monte Carlo（MC） method. After discussing the limitation of the volume method for the estimation of the methane resource in detail, the principle of the MC method for the estimation of the methane resource is researched and analyzed thoroughly, and the methane resource of gas hydrate area in Mackenzie delta is calculated as an example.

关 键 词：天然气水合物 蒙特卡罗法(MC) 甲烷资源量 

分 类 号：P744.4[天文地球—海洋科学]