公共建设项目工期延误风险研究  

Study on risks of time delay in the execution of public sector projects

作　　者：王家远[1] 申立银[2] 郝晓冬[1] 

机构地区：[1]深圳大学土木工程学院,深圳518060 [2]香港理工大学建筑及房地产系

出　　处：《深圳大学学报（理工版）》2006年第4期303-308,共6页Journal of Shenzhen University(Science and Engineering)

基　　金：建设部科技计划资助项目(04-1-001);深圳市科技计划资助项目(200316)

摘　　要：工期延误是公共建设项目中常见的现象,以工期延误率△T来度量建设项目工期的变化,通过问卷调查和实地访谈,对影响建设项目工期的风险因素进行了调查,收集了深港两地515个公共建设项目的工期实际数据,利用逆高斯分布函数建立了评估工期延误风险的定量模型,并通过风险因素的相对重要性评分识别出了影响建设工期的前15位风险因素,这些风险因素分别来自业主、承包商、分包商、政府部门及其他5个方面.研究表明,通过对这些风险因素的识别,可以帮助项目决策者有针对性地采取预防措施,减少风险对项目建设工期的影响.Time delays are common in executing particularly public sector construction projects. This paper examines the degree of time variance during the construction process by using the variance of construction time （△T）. The data used for analysis was collected from a questionnaire survey on the construction practice in Hong Kong and Shenzhen. A model for presenting the risks of time delays is developed with reference to the inverse Gaussian distribution method. The distribution developed suggests that almost all public sector projects suffer from time overrun risks in different degrees. Through investigating the risk factors contributing to the time delays, this study identifies major project time-overrun risks which are under five groups ： client-related risks, contractor-related risks, subcontractor-related risks, governmental department-related risks, and others. The findings of this study provide valuable references to decision-maker for improving the quality of time planning when public sectors are implemented. The findings also suggest that the problem of time delays can be improved by focusing on these key risk factors.

关 键 词：公共建设项目 工期延误率 延误风险 逆高斯分布 延迟证估模型 深圳 香港 

分 类 号：TU712.4[建筑科学—建筑技术科学] F294.1[经济管理—国民经济]