农业病虫害预测预报专家系统平台的开发  

Research and development of the expert system platform for forecast and prediction of agricultural pests

作　　者：高灵旺[1] 陈继光 于新文[3] 王春荣[3] 胡伯海[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院,北京100094 [2]黑龙江省植保植检总站,哈尔滨150030 [3]西南林学院资源学院,昆明650224 [4]全国农业技术推广中心信息处,北京100026

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2006年第10期154-158,共5页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家"十五"攻关计划资助项目(2001BA50PB01);"973"项目(2002CB111405-3)

摘　　要：详细介绍了农业病虫害预测预报专家系统平台的设计与开发,包括系统的整体结构与功能设计、系统知识库的设计与知识组织模型、系统各功能模块的设计及系统的特点等。系统主要由专家知识库、系统推理机、预测预报模块、知识库管理模块、案例库管理模块和预测结果解释模块等构成,以数据库形式来存放有关的专家知识,共定义10个数据表,各表间形成了特定的关联关系,使得表中所包含的有关知识描述、特征临界值、生成的判别条件及发生等级间构成一种网状模型。系统采用了基于专家知识的前向型推理与基于案例的推理(C ase-B ased R eason ing,CBR)相结合的方式进行预测推理。各模块的用户界面采用“向导”或其它提示方式引导用户完成专家知识库的维护、用户数据输入、推理确认、病虫害预测预报结果显示、案例库管理(包括案例确认、补充信息及案例统计)及预测结果解释等操作。系统具有开放、自学习、易操作等特性,可广泛应用于农业、林业等病虫害预测预报专家系统的构建。In this paper, the research and development of the expert system platform for forecast and prediction ot agricultural pests were introduced in detail, including the design of the structure and functions, knowledge base and the model of the knowledge form, modules and characteristics of the platform. The platform consists of knowledge base, inference engine, modules of forecast and prediction, management for knowledge base, case database, and explanation. The knowledge base was loaded by ten tables in database supported by SQL server 2000 in the platform, and the relationships among the tables were defined. Sc,, the expert＇s knowledge in platform, including the description of the knowledge, the critical values for the.. description, terms for distinguishment, and the grade of pests harm, formed a web model. Expert-knowledge-based forward chaining reasoning and Case-Based Reasoning（CBR） were combined in the inference engine. Wizard and other patterns of hint in the interface of modules can guide the users to finish the manipulations of maintaining knowledge base, data input, reasoning process, showing results of pest prediction and forecast, management of case database, and explaining the system actions. The platform was of openness, self-education, and easy operation. It can be used in prediction and forecast of pest in agriculture and forestry, etc.

关 键 词：农业病虫害 预测预报 专家系统 系统平台 

分 类 号：S431[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治] TP182[农业科学—植物保护]