华南前汛期旱涝影响因子和预报方法  

INFLUENCE FACTORS AND PREDICTION METHOD ON FLOOD/DROUGHT DURING THE FIRST RAINY SEASON IN SOUTH CHINA

作　　者：黄先香[1] 炎利军 施能[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所,广东广州510080 [2]广东省佛山市气象局,广东佛山528000

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2006年第5期431-438,共8页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40275028);热带海洋气象科学研究基金项目共同资助

摘　　要：利用二维风场差异的显著性检验和蒙特卡洛模拟检验等方法,研究华南前汛期旱涝年同期及前期风场差异特征。结果表明西太平洋副热带高压及850 hPa贝加尔湖东北部和南印度洋中部的风场异常是影响华南前汛期旱涝的重要因子；前期1月的印度北部和3月的西北太平洋风场异常可能是华南前汛期旱涝的强预测信号。分析还表明,3月份北太平洋地区的高度场与前汛期降水有密切关系。最后,建立了华南前汛期旱涝的预报工具。By using significance test of two-dimensional wind fields anomalies and Monte Carlo simulation experiment scheme, the significance features of wind fields anomalies are investigated in relation to flood/drought during the first rainy season in south China. Results show that western Pacific subtropical high and wind anomalies over the northeast of Lake Baikal and middle of Indian Ocean are important factors. Wind anomalies over the northern India in January and the northwest Pacific in March may be strong prediction signals. Study also shows that rainfall in south China bears a close relation to the geopotential height filed over the northern Pacific in March. Finally, a prediction method for the first rainy season is presented.

关 键 词：风场统计检验 旱涝 预报方法 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]