1948～2001年全球旱、涝变化和ENSO关系  

VARIATION OF GLOBAL LAND FLOOD/DROUGHT YEARS/SEASONS DURING 1948～2001 AND ENSO

作　　者：张俊[1] 施能[1] 封国林[2] 刘锦绣[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害和环境变化重点开放实验室,南京210044 [2]国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室

出　　处：《气象科学》2006年第5期478-483,共6页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40275028;90411008);重点基础研究发展规划项目(编号:2004CB418300)共同资助

摘　　要：本文回顾了全球旱涝气候变化的一些最新研究,提出全球旱涝年定义方法,用最新资料对全球的旱涝年,旱涝季进行了补充计算与统一划分。给出了1948~2001年全球旱涝年和旱涝季表。据此,研究了全球旱涝气候变化和年代际变化特征;研究了全球旱涝年、旱涝季、全球降水量与ENSO的关系。计算了南方涛动在解释年、季平均降水量的年际变化中的方差贡献百分比,结果表明,南方涛动在对全球,北半球和南半球陆地年降水量中的解释方差百分比,分别是59.5%;28.6%和47.2%。南方涛动在9~11月,0°~10°S纬度带内的降水量的年际变化中的解释方差高达到67.9%。南方涛动在20°N^30°S纬度带内的年降水量中有很大的解释方差。The floods and droughts are the key problems in the field of climate researches all the time. In this paper the recent advances in these researches are reviewed and summarized systematically. Especially,the definition and classification of global land flood/drought, the global land flood/drought years and seasons during 1948-2001, the characters of climatic and interannual change of global flood/drought, the relation between global flood/drought years and ENSO events and the relation between global large scale areas are analyzed in detail. In the mean time, certain part of the achievement is updated using the newest data set. The rate of variance contribution explained by SO for interannual variation of annual and seasonal average precipitation are also calculated . The results indicated SO explains about 59.5 %, 28.6 %and 47. 2 % of interannual variance in Global,Northern and Southern Hemisphere averaged annual land precipitation, respectively and SO explains 67.9 % of interannual variance of area averaged precipitation from Sept. to Nov. in the latitude bands 0-10 °S . The interannual variance of annual precipitation explained by SO in latitude bands 20 °N-30 °S is quite remarkable.

关 键 词：全球旱涝 气候变化 年代际变化 ENSO 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]