暴雨型泥石流多层预报系统的研究  

RESEARCH ON MULTI-LEVEL FORECAST SYSTEM OF RAIN-INDUCED DEBRIS FLOW

作　　者：张京红[1] 韦方强[1] 刘淑珍[1] 高克昌[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院-水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所

出　　处：《气象科学》2006年第5期548-552,共5页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：中国科学院山地灾害与环境研究所创新前沿项目(编号:C3200307)资助

摘　　要：本文采用数值天气预报模式、静止气象卫星云图、雷达回波和遥测雨量计四种手段进行大气降水的预报与监测,提供不同时空尺度的降水预报产品,构建不同时空尺度满足不同精度要求的泥石流预报系统。该系统具有区域与沟谷相结合,时空尺度合理嵌套的优点,由四川省范围、凉山州地区以及单沟泥石流预报模型组成,可进行不同层次的泥石流预报,能满足不同层次的泥石流减灾要求。In this paper,based on 4 methods-numerical weather prediction model,cloud image of stationary meteorological satellite, echo image of meteorological radar and telemetry, multi-time and space scale precipitation prediction products can be achieved ,and multi-layer project of debris flow forecast is established with different time and space scale to face different forecast precision. The forecast system has the advantages in combination of regions and valleys, rational compounding of time and space scale. The project,which has debris flow forecast models of Sichuan province, Liangshan region and single ravine, can forecast debris flow in various levels and meets the demand of hazard mitigation at corresponding level.

关 键 词：暴雨型泥石流 预报 四川省 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]