探讨线性合成概率方法在江苏及邻区的应用  

A Study on the Application of the Linear Probability Method in Jiangsu and its Neighboring Area

作　　者：孙业君[1] 田建明[1] 黄耘[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省地震局,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《华南地震》2006年第3期26-33,共8页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：江苏省社会发展基金项目(BS2003053)

摘　　要：利用基于地震周期谱分析的线性合成概率预测方法,在对江苏及邻区已发生地震进行回顾性检验的基础上,探讨该方法在不同地震活动水平时的预报效能,结果表明:线性合成概率的高值分布时段为地震发生的优势时段,与中强地震具有较好的相关性;在研究区域处于地震活跃期时,用线性合成概率方法研究预测未来地震趋势是一种较为有效的方法。The linear probability method based on earthquake periodical spectrum analysis is used to review and inspect the earthquakes occurred in Jiangsu and its neighboring area and discuss the forecast effect at the different level of seismicity in the paper. The results show that the linear probability period of time of tall numerical value is the period of time of superiority of earthquake. And that is better pertinence get along with medium and strong earthquake; Using the linear probability method to forecast the seismic trend in the future is effective and successful when the region concerned is at the active period.

关 键 词：周期谱 线性合成概率 强震预测 地震活动背景 

分 类 号：P315.01[天文地球—地震学]