A Fuzzy Probabilistic Influence Diagram Method to Assess Marine Configuration Risk  

基于模糊影响图的海洋结构风险分析方法研究(英文)

作　　者：康海贵[1] 阎利军[1] 周鹏飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学海岸及近海工程国家重点实验室,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《Marine Science Bulletin》2006年第2期21-30,共10页海洋通报（英文版）

摘　　要：A risk assessment method for marine configuration based on Fuzzy Probability Influence Diagram （FPID） and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis （FMEA） is established in this paper. Considering the fuzzy characteristic of the two key inputs such as event happening probability and relation probability, the method induces fuzzy probability into the PID risk assessment for marine configuration, where defuzzification is performed using the centroid method to determine the risk at a given grade of a probabilistic item. FMEA as a traditional qualitative analysis method is used to determine the effect factor structure. An application of the presented method for the offshore jacket platform is implemented. The method can be widely applicable although only offshore platform is analyzed here.基于模糊影响图(FPID)和失效模式与效果分析(FMEA)建立了一种海洋结构风险分析方法。鉴于风险分析中某些事件发生概率和关系概率两个重要参数确定时需借助专家主观判断,本文将模糊概率的概念引入海洋结构影响图评估方法中。该方法成功地应用到海洋平台人员伤害分析中。虽然这里仅给出了该方法在海洋平台风险评估中的应用,但其具有更广泛应用价值。

关 键 词：Risk assessment maritime configuration fuzzy probabilistic influence diagram failure mode and effect analysis. 

分 类 号：U656.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]