Forecast of Red Tide in the South China Sea by Using the Variation Trend of Hydrological and Meteorological Factors  

利用水文、气象要素因子的变化趋势预测南海区赤潮的发生(英文)

作　　者：张俊峰[1] 白毅平[1] 俞建良[1] 庞海龙[1] 邓文君[1] 李华健[1] 吴迪生[1] 赵雪[1] 陈惠君[1] 蒋跃进[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局南海预报中心,广东广州510300 [2]国家海洋局南海监测中心,广州广州510300

出　　处：《Marine Science Bulletin》2006年第2期60-74,共15页海洋通报（英文版）

摘　　要：Many studies point out that weather conditions involving temperature, wind power, monsoon transform, air pressure, sea condition, tide, ocean current, salinity, eutrophic environment and so on are key factors causing Red Tide. In the red tide high frequency areas of the South China Sea, the eutrophic environment of sea water has already existed, so the key elements such as meteorological and hydrological conditions play an importance role in the occurrence of red tide. The atmospheric circulation maintenance and variation decide whether meteorological phenomena, and hydrological key elements stabilize or change. Moreover, the red tide organisms＇ breeding from the initial stage to the blooming reproduction stage, until reaching the biological density of the red tide, generally takes 4 - 5 days. In the paper, the red tide examples are analyzed in the past 10 years, and the weather circulation situation and hydro-meteorological key elements of it are counted to find the previous circulation mode and bring out important factors inducing the blooming of red tide. The predicted result in 2003 according to this method was satisfactory.有些文献指出：“赤潮发生起因因种而异，但大体上气候气象条件诸如温度、风力、风向，季风转换、气压等；海况、潮汐、流等以及海水的理化特征，如盐度、营养元素等，这些皆会成为某种赤潮爆发的因子或诱导因素”。根据赤潮监控区监测资料分析：在南海赤潮多发区，海水富营养化条件已经具备，因此气象、水文要素条件就成为赤潮爆发的重要启动因子，而天气环流的维持与变化决定了气象、水文要素因子的稳定与变化，再根据赤潮生物培养试验，从初期繁殖到后期的爆发性繁殖，直至达到赤潮生物密度，这一过程一般都需要4—5d的时间。针对这一现象，通过对近10a的赤潮发生个例进行统计分析，统计其生成前期的天气环流形势和水文气象要素，分析出赤潮生成前期的环流模式和筛选出诱发赤潮爆发的重要因子，并依此来作为预报赤潮生成的方法，依照此方法对2003年的赤潮进行预报，其效果是另人满意的。

关 键 词：Red tide meteorological condition weather circulation 

分 类 号：X55[环境科学与工程—环境工程]