用捕获-再捕获法估计三峡库区居民出生和死亡水平  

Estimation on the level of birth and death rates of population in the Three Gorges area by means of capture-mark-recapture method

作　　者：张静[1] 毛德强[2] 贺园园[3] 颜朝阳[4] 江斌[5] 宁桂军[1] 黄玉英[1] 汪新丽[2] 罗超[4] 石国生[5] 陈斌[3] 杨维中[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心,北京100050 [2]重庆市疾病预防控制中心 [3]湖北省宜昌市疾病预防控制中心 [4]重庆市万州区疾病预防控制中心 [5]重庆市丰都县疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2006年第11期960-962,共3页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

摘　　要：目的评价出生死亡监测质量,校正三峡库区报告人口出生率和死亡率。方法采用分层随机整群抽样方法,对抽取的7061户居民逐户调查人口出生和死亡情况,再与同期监测系统所报告的出生、死亡资料进行核对,计算漏报率以及总体出生率和死亡率95%可信区间(CI)。结果三峡库区人群健康监测系统出生漏报率为13．91%,死亡漏报率为15．60%,婴儿死亡漏报率为33．33%。校正报告出生率为8．92‰,估计总体出生率95% CI：8．38‰～9．45‰,校正报告死亡率为6．88‰,估计总体死亡率95%CI：6．37‰～7．38‰。结论三峡库区人群健康监测系统出生和死亡报告质量符合国家疾病监测点质量要求。2002—2004年三峡库区人口出生率和死亡率在10．00‰以下。Objective To evaluate quality of surveillance and emendate rates of birth and death of population of the Three Gorges area. Methods Data on the two samples collected were designed based on principle of capture-recapture method. An investigation of missing report of birth and death was conducted in 7061 families selected through stratified random sampling method. We collected and registered the data of birth and death in every family investigated and checked with correlative records reported in disease surveillance system of the Three Gorges area. The missing report rates and the 95 % confidence intervals of birth rate and death rate were calculated. Results The underreporting rates of birth and death were 13.91% and 15.60 % and death of infant was 33.33 %. The emended birth rate was 8. 92‰ and the 95 % confidence interval of birth rate was 8. 38‰-9. 459‰. The emended report rate of death was 6.88‰ and the collectivity 95 % confidence interval was 6.37‰-7.38‰. Conclusion Results showed that the quality of birth and death in the disease surveillance reporting system of Three Gorges area was competent to the quality level of the standard set for national disease surveillance system. The birth and death rates of population in the Three Gorges area were under 10.00‰.

关 键 词：出生 死亡 捕获-标记-再捕获法 漏报 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]