经济开放、外部冲击与宏观经济稳定——基于美国经济冲击的影响分析  

Economic Openness,External Shocks and Macroeconomic Stability——The Analysis of U.S.Economic Shocks to China

作　　者：贾俊雪[1] 郭庆旺[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心,北京100872

出　　处：《中国人民大学学报》2006年第6期65-73,共9页Journal of Renmin University of China

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(03JZD0013);教育部"高校青年教师奖"资助

摘　　要：在开放经济条件下,来自外部的冲击会通过国际贸易和金融市场传导机制对一国的宏观经济稳定产生影响。分析表明,美国经济冲击对我国实体经济波动的影响比较显著,且主要是通过金融市场传导机制发挥作用;贸易依存度的提高总体上有助于经济稳定,而实际关税率的下降则不利于经济稳定;金融自由化进程总体上不利于经济稳定,而产业结构升级、以银行业为主导的金融体系结构、亚洲金融危机期间盯住美元的汇率政策调整、人民币有效汇率的贬值以及相对稳健的财政和金融状况,都在一定程度上有助于消减外部冲击的不利影响。This paper analyses the effects of external shocks （U. S. shocks） on macroeconomic stability in China through international trades and financial market transmission mechanism based on 1992- 2005 quarterly data. Our conclusion are as follows. U. S. shocks have significant effects on real activity but insignificant effects on money supply fluctuation, and mainly function through financial market transmission mechanism. Increase in trade dependency ratios can help stabilize macroeconomics, while reduction in the ratio of tariff revenues to imports causes economic fluctuations. Financial liberalization causes economic fluctuations mainly owing to the liberalization of capital account and domestic stock markets, but the liberalization of domestic financial sector can help stabilize macroeconomics. Improvement of industrial structure, bank-based financial systems, exchange rate policy adjustment of pegged to U.S. dollar during Asian Financial Crises, currency depreciation and relative stable fiscal and financial stance all help stabilize macroeconomics.

关 键 词：经济开放 外部冲击 宏观经济稳定 

分 类 号：F171.2[经济管理—世界经济]