从潮白河年径流频率分布变化看北京市水资源安全问题  

PROBLEMS IN THE SECURITY OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE CITY OF BEIJING REFLECTED FROM THE CHANGE IN ANNUAL RUNOFF FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION IN CHAOBAIHE BASIN

作　　者：谢平[1] 陈广才[1] 韩淑敏[1] 武方圆[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2006年第6期713-717,共5页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50579052)资助

摘　　要：密云水库是北京市生活供水的唯一地表水源,而潮白河流域又是密云水库的径流形成区,因此,潮白河流域年径流量的变化直接关系到北京市的水资源安全。根据变化环境下非一致性年径流序列的水文频率计算原理,对潮白河水资源分区年径流序列的确定性成分和随机性成分进行分解,并分别对确定性成分进行拟合计算,对随机性成分进行频率计算;将确定性的预测值和随机性的设计值进行合成,得到潮白河水资源分区在过去、现在和未来年径流量的频率分布;从年径流量的频率分布变化上,分析了北京市所面临的水资源安全问题。分析结果表明潮白河流域年径流量变化的总体趋势是逐年减小,密云水库在平水年和枯水年的入库径流量也将随之减小,因此密云水库不能成为北京21世纪可持续发展的水资源保障。Miyun reservoir is the only source of surface water for the life water supply in the city of Beijing, and Chaobaihe basin is the district of runoff formation for the reservoir. The change in the annual runoff in Chaobaihe river basin influences directly the water resource security in Beijing. According to the theory of decomposing and synthesis in the analysis of time series, the determinant and stochastic components of annual runoff series in the resource region of Chaobaihe river were decomposed, and the fit calculation of determinant components and the frequency calculation of stochastic components were conducted separately. The determinant forecasting value and stochastic design value were synthesized, and the past and present as Well as future frequency distributions were obtained for the resource region of Chaobaihe river. The security problems for water resources in Beijing were analyzed from the change of annual runoff frequency distribution in the river. The overall trend in the change of the annual runoff decreases year by year, and Miyun reservoir inflow also reduces in normal and dry years; therefore, Miyun reservoir may not be able to ensure the water resources for the sustainable development in Beijing in the 21 century.

关 键 词：年径流 频率分布 水资源安全 时间序列 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]