河北省宏观经济运行的长期均衡分析  

A Research on Long-term Equilibrium of Hebei's Macroeconomic Operation

作　　者：李国柱[1] 贾洪波[2] 黄本春[1] 

机构地区：[1]石家庄经济学院,河北石家庄050031 [2]辽宁大学,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《石家庄经济学院学报》2006年第5期624-629,共6页Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Economics

基　　金：河北省科技厅项目(06457293)

摘　　要：运用协整理论和误差修正模型,估计了河北省宏观经济运行的长期均衡和短期波动关系。从长期看,河北省宏观经济系统存在协整关系,且这种关系对即期GDP具有促进作用。河北经济是投资驱动和出口拉动型的,消费不直接促进经济增长,而是通过协整关系间接促进经济增长。Ifi accordance with the co-integration theory and the error-correction model, this paper measures the long-term equilibrium of macro economic operation in Hebei. The economy system in Hebei has co-integration relationship, and this relationship can stimulate economic growth. The economy in Hebei is investment-driven and ex- port-driven. Consumption can＇ t affect GDP directly, but can stimulate the growth through co-integration relationship.

关 键 词：广东区域经济 长期均衡 短期波动 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]