灰色关联分析模型对大气环境质量预测的应用研究  

Application of Grey Correlation Analysis Model on Predicting Atmospheric Environmental Quality

作　　者：张磊 张波 普智晓 

机构地区：[1]深圳市环境科学研究所,深圳518027 [2]深圳市福田区环保局,深圳518050 [3]珠海香洲区环保办,珠海519000

出　　处：《上海环境科学》1996年第8期18-20,共3页Shanghai Environmental Sciences

摘　　要：利用灰色关联分析模型,筛选出影响深圳市大气环境质量的主要因素,通过建立相应的GM(1,N)预测模型,对“九五”期间大气中的NO_x浓度和降尘量做多因素相关预测。结果表明:深圳市大气中NO_x浓度和降尘量的污染来源是线源>面源>点源;深圳市“九五”期间大气中NO_x浓度和降尘量基本上呈上升趋势,预计到2000年,NO_x浓度和降尘量将分别比1993年增加60％、265%。因此,必须从控制机动车辆数增长和削减商饮业排污量入手,维持深圳市良好的大气环境质量。Option of the major factors which effect on the air quality in Shenzhen by using Grey Correlation Analysis Model and built up relevant GM (I, N) predciting model, to predict the multi-factor correlation of the concentrations of NOx and dustfall in Shenzhen in the period of '9-5'. The results showed that the pollution sources of NOx and dustfall in Shenzhen air were 'line source' > surface source > point source. In '9·5' period, amount of NOx dustfall in Shenzhen will be increased gradually, up to the year of 2000, NOx concentration and the amount of dustfall will be increased 60% and 265% respectively in comparison with those in 1993. Therefore controlling the number of motor vehicle and decreasing coal burning shoud be the starting point of emission control.

关 键 词：大气质量座模式 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]