基于情景分析法的北京市道路省际客运需求预测研究  

Transport Demand Forecast of Beijing Area Inter-provincial Road Passenger Based on Scene Analysis Method

作　　者：熊琦[1] 虞明远[1] 

机构地区：[1]交通部公路科学研究院公路交通发展研究中心,北京100088

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2006年第4期94-99,共6页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

摘　　要：本文介绍了研究中长期发展战略的一种先进的预测方法,即情景分析方法,并将该方法具体应用于北京市道路省际客运需求预测实例。通过情景分析方法预测,可得出不同层面的政策措施,从而为有关部门提供决策依据。A forecast method for studying the mid and long term road transport development strategy - scene analysis method - was introduced, which is applied in forecast of the inter-provincial road passenger transport demand in Beijing metropolitan area. By forecast and based on the scene analysis method, the alternative policy options in different fields and levels are gained, and these can supply a kind of decision support for policy makers.

关 键 词：道路运输规划 运输需求 预测 情景分析方法 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]