基于Monte-Carlo模拟的狮子包边坡稳定性研究  

Stability of Shizibao Slope Based on Monte-Carlo Simulation

作　　者：赵文斌[1] 罗文强[2] 冯永[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学工程学院,武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学数学与物理学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《地质科技情报》2006年第6期96-98,共3页Geological Science and Technology Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40372120);武汉市研究创新类计划项目(20066002059)

摘　　要：以三峡库区巴东县沿江路云沱段狮子包边坡为例,综合边坡工程地质、水文地质、岩体结构特征及边坡前期变形破坏迹象,基于Monte-Carlo法得到边坡稳定的破坏概率及安全系数,进而用可靠性理论对边坡稳定性进行了探索。结果表明,通过Monte-Carlo法得到的狮子包边坡安全系数为0.857,而用传统安全系数法得到的安全系数大于1。实际上,该边坡在2003年曾经产生过滑动,因此,基于Monte-Carlo法的可靠性理论对边坡稳定性评价更符合实际。The Shizhibo slope of Yuntuo segment in Badong County, Three Gorges Reservior area, which slid in 2003 is taken as an example in the paper. Its stability was analysed by reliability theories. Based on engineering geology, hydrology, rock mass structure and previous deformation destruction of the landslide, Monte-Carlo method was applied to analyse its failure probability and safety coefficient. The safety coefficient obtained by this method is 0. 857, while that obtained by the traditional method is more than 1. The analysis result indicates that Monte-Carlo method is more appilicable for landslide stability evaluation.

关 键 词：边坡 可靠度 安全系数 破坏概率 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]