决策建模支持中的不确定性分析  

The Analysis of Uncertainty in Decision Modeling Support

作　　者：喻永新[1] 费奇[1] 彭祖赠[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中理工大学系统工程研究所,武汉水利电力大学

出　　处：《控制与决策》1996年第5期556-560,共5页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金

摘　　要：分析决策建模的简化过程，认为模型的建立都是在一系列模型假设的基础上，模型假设的设定不同，模型的结构也就不同，将模型结构的不确定性视为模型假设命题的不确定性。将Ｄｅｍｐｓｔｅｒ—Ｓｈａｆｅｒ证据理论用于描述建模中的不确定性，讨论了扩张与限制运算，提出一种不确定性传播方法。he simplification of decision modeling is analysed. The modeling depends on a set of model's assumption, when these model's assumption are different, model's structures are different also. The uncertainty of model's structure is considered as the uncertainty of model's assumption proposition. Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is used to describer some uncertainty in model building, extension and restriction operation are discussed, a kind of propagate method of uncertainty is proposed.

关 键 词：不确定性 决策 建模 

分 类 号：O225[理学—运筹学与控制论]