基于蒙特卡罗模拟方法的快速路运行时间可靠度研究  

Study on Travel Time Reliability on Urban Expressway Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

作　　者：高爱霞[1] 陈艳艳[2] 任福田[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京人民警察学院,北京102202 [2]北京工业大学交通研究中心,北京100022

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2006年第11期126-128,132,共4页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金重点资助项目(8031002);北京市科技新星资助项目(H013680080112)

摘　　要：运行时间可靠度作为一个非常重要的概率测度参数能有效地评价交通网络的动态特性。在对运行时间可靠度的概念界定的基础上,分析了快速路运行时间可靠度的影响因素。提出了运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法计算运行时间可靠度,即采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法随机的对快速路入口的交通需求变量进行抽样,根据得到的样本值确定路径出行时间,然后对此出行时间进行检查,如果超过了规定的阈值,则认为不可靠,否则可靠。并通过一个算例对该模型进行了验证。最后指出了运行时间可靠度这一概率参数的应用前景。Travel time reliability is a very important measure parameter of probability, which can effectively evaluate the dynamic performance of traffic system. On the basis of the concept of travel time reliability, the influence factors on travel time reliability on urban expressway are analyzed. The calculation method of travel time reliability of urban expressway based on Monte Carlo simulation is put forward, that is using the method of Monte Carlo simulation stochastically samples the traffic demand variable of the entry of expressway, to calculate travel time, and check the calculated value. If it exceeds the threshold, it＇ s unreliable. The proposed model is testified by a numerical example. Finally, the future application of travel time reliability as a probability parameter is proposed.

关 键 词：快速路 蒙特卡罗 运行时间可靠度 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]