广东省SARS传播模型实证研究  

A study on the transmission dynamic model of SARS in Guangdong province

作　　者：谭旭辉[1] 柳青[1] 何剑峰[2] 罗惠明[2] 葛阜阳（校） 

机构地区：[1]中山大学公共卫生学院,广东广州510080 [2]广东省疾病预防控制中心,广东广州510300 [3]不详

出　　处：《疾病控制杂志》2006年第6期560-563,共4页Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention

摘　　要：目的探讨严重急性呼吸系统综合征(severe acute respiratory syndrome,SARS)在人群中的传播规律,研究预防措施对疾病的影响,为预防控制SARS提供科学依据。方法用确定性的SIR模型和SEIDR模型等传播动力学数学模型对SARS流行过程进行估计与分析。结果通过对卫生部2003年4月22日公布的广东省的数据,用确定性SIR模型估计消除比。广州市SARS的基本繁殖率为3.5左右。结论确定性的SIR模型、确定性SEIDR模型能比较好模拟并估计出SARS传播过程,并能够对未来的SARS流行趋势和流行规模进行预测。Objective To investigate the transmission rules of SARS, to study the effects of corresponding prevention measures, and to provide evidences for the prevention and control. Methods The transmission dynamics models of deterministic SIR model and SEIDR model were used to analyze, the process of SARS transmission and estimate the effect of implementation of control measures. Results The number of susceptible, infected and removed in Guangdong province had been calculated using susceptible infected removed （SIR） model, all parameters with epidemiological meaning including transmission rate, removal ratio and threshold value had been estimated. It was considered that the basic reproduction rate （BRR） of Guangzhou was approximately 3.5. Conclusions SIR model and SEIDR model could simulate the process of SARS transmission with reasonable parameter and reflect the process of SARS transmission.

关 键 词：流行病学 疾病传播 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学] R563.1[医药卫生—临床医学]