基于灌溉的北方冬小麦水分供需风险研究  

Risk analysis of water demand and supply of winter wheat in North China based on irrigation

作　　者：霍治国[1] 姜艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2006年第11期79-84,共6页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目(2004BA509B14)

摘　　要：依据风险原理，利用北方冬麦区近40年冬小麦水分供需的相关资料，基于灌水定额为675m^3／hm^2，估算了冬小麦全生育期无灌溉，灌1～5水条件下不同水分供需率等级出现的风险概率。结果表明；北方冬麦区不同水分供需率等级出现的风险概率，呈由北向南逐渐减少的趋势;其中中南部地区呈由中部向沿海、由中部向西部逐渐减少的趋势。以冬小麦全生育期水分供需率≥70％的风险概率≥90％、水分供需率≥80％的风险概率≥75％为主导指标，确定了基于风险的不同地区的冬小麦全生育期适宜补充灌溉次数。北方冬麦区在补充灌溉1～4水后，即可基本满足冬小麦稳产增产的水分需求；在适宜补充灌溉3～4水的地区，传统方式灌5～6水，过量灌溉严重，目前可至少减少灌溉1～2次，节水675～1350m^3／hm^2。Based on the theory of risk analysis, using the data related to water demand and supply of winter wheat in recent 40 years in North China, the risk probabilities of the different water demand and supply rates for nonirrigation or under conditions of irrigation for 1～5 times with the amount of 675 m/hmz every time during the whole growing period of winter wheat were estimated. The results show that the risk probabilities of different water demand and supply rates take on decreasing tendency from north to south in North China, which exhibits decreasing tendency from middle part to inshore, from middle part to west in south and central of North China. Making the risk probability≥90% of the water demand and supply rate≥70% and the risk probability≥75% of the water demand and supply rate≥80% during the whole growing period of winter wheat as main indexes, the proper complementary times of irrigation based on in different districts are ascertained. If 1～4 times risk analysis during the whole growing period of winter wheat of water supplement can be implemented in North China, the water demand guaranteeing high and steady yield of winter wheat can be satisfied. In some districts which is suitable to irrigate for 3～4 times, there are 5～6 times of irrigation in traditional ways which is severely superfluous. If 1～2 times of irrigation can be reduced, it is feasible to save water by 675～1350 m^3/hm^2.

关 键 词：冬小麦 灌溉 水分供需率 风险概率 

分 类 号：S274.3[农业科学—农业水土工程]